The NFL is back on Thursday night / Friday morning with the Super Bowl champion Rams, facing up to the bookies favourite for this years Super Bowl The Buffalo Bills at SoFi Stadium in the early hours of the morning here in the UK and I for one cannot wait to be bleary eyed every single Monday morning from here until early February!
But less of that game and more of the game I’m here to write about!
PHILADELPHIA -3 @ DETRIOT 5/6 SKYBET
There haven’t been many times that I have wanted to back Jalen Hurts and The Eagles, but Sunday sees one of those rare occasions.
The line is Philly -4 at most places and to be clear I do like it at that number too, -4 is more widely available than the -3 you can get at SkyBet, but as you know as a better, you need at least 3 outs to give you the the opportunity to get the very best number available.
Most projections suggest The Eagles have had the best off season that they could possibly have had, after Brandon Brooks retired Philly went about making moves on the defence, they resigned C Jason Kelce, and drafted DT Jordan Davies in the first round, a draft that saw them use their first 4 picks on the defensive side of the ball.
The defense bolstering additions didn’t stop there, they added Kyzir White, James Bradberry and CJ Gardner Johnson, all 3 are likely starters and will all improve a middle of the road defence from last year.
On the other side of the ball they now have a stand out wide receiver in AJ Brown who they traded for from The Titans.
Brown will compliment second year wideout Devonta Smith, they’ve also added the ever reliable Zach Pascal from Indianapolis, a good pool of talent without mentioning Hurts’ favourite target from last year TE Dallas Goedert.
Their backfield is stronger than it was last year too, Hurts’ ability with his legs has never been in question but with Miles Sanders and Trey Surman Philly now have a well rounded ground game to go with their core of receivers.
Pro Football Focus has Philadelphia with the number one rated O-Line and Warren Sharp has them second.
Philly has given Hurts everything he needs to succeed this season, a vastly improved defence, play makers on the offensive side of the ball and a top tier O-Line to protect him, pardon the pun, Hurts you with his legs but now can he Hurts you with his arm?
Dan Campbell and his knee biters should be improved from last year, to be frank they couldn’t get much worse! But don’t be fooled into the Hard Knocks hype, remember how high people got on Cleveland after they drafted Baker and then had a Hard Knocks series?
I’m not convinced by Goff under centre, I never truly have been, more importantly neither was Sean McVay which is why Goff finds himself under centre in the Motor City.
Detroit however does have a good two headed punch in the back field with Swift and Williams, they have capable receivers in Reynolds and Amon Ra St Brown, as well as TE TJ Hockenson.
But are we saying that given 1.5 points at a maximum for the Lions home field advantage that Philly are only 1.5 points better than Detroit at a neutral venue?
Detroit’s first round draft pick Aidan Hutchinson looks a stud and has everything needed to be a success as the Lions poster boy on defence, but coming up against a team with a QB who is well versed in running and three good backs given Boston Scott who I failed to mention earlier is third on The Eagles depth chart, this is still a Detroit team that gave up 2296 yards at 4.4 yards a carry and 19 rushing touchdowns last season, and that leaves me brimming with confidence.
While we’re on the subject of The Lions defence they tied for second in league in receiving touchdowns allowed (31).
The other teams with that unwanted record were Green Bay, Baltimore, Atlanta and Chicago, the only team to give up more receiving touchdowns last year was Indianapolis with 32.
Could Philly be a true contender? I’m not so sure, but I am convinced they do have enough in my less than humble opinion to beat Detroit on the road this weekend.
Bet responsibly, and enjoy the greatest show on earth being back, and lets hope the cockroach bookmakers are reeling come Monday morning.
Cheers, Sam “The Fat Man”
Fat Lad Sports 