Week 14 this week, and holy shit we’re in the home stretch of the regular season, only 4 more weeks of Scott Hanson for 7 hours and that’s not a nice thought at all. Things are still up in the air, and there are a lot of teams that need to win games this week to either cement their playoff place or to keep themselves in the hunt!
The standout game of the week is obviously Tampa Bay and Buffalo at 9.25 UK time, can the Bills get out of this funk and can Brady keep the Bucs in the hunt for the number one seed? San Francisco and Cincinnati is a really good game to keep the Bills and Bucs company, and some big division games in the early slate the one with the most implications seems to be Washington and Dallas, with The Football Team controlling their destiny in the NFC Beast with 5 division games to come. Browns face a dinged up Ravens team, who opted to not kick the extra point and trust Justin Tucker if needed in overtime, and Raiders Chiefs, can Paddy Ketchup finally get his mojo back?
We’re coming off a 4-1 week last week, and I posted my leans, so I’ll do that again this week as well as a prop or two, so lets get it shall we!
PICK 1.
This bet is on the alternate spreads on SkyBet but it’s essentially a two team 7 point teaser. But as UK books don’t do two team teaser cards, we have to make our own (Bet365 do 3 team teaser cards).
A big division game for Kansas City, who its well reported are struggling on offense, blah blah blah every talking head all over the NFL media brigade has had their say on this, and as fans who consume a lot of media, I’m sick of hearing about it, you probably are too.
Yes Vegas will be motivated for a division game, but at the moment I just don’t want any part of them. Darren Waller is out, and he’s going to be a huge miss for Carr and the Raiders, he’s their playmaker and can stretch the field better than Renfrow, good as he is too by the way.
There is also a good match up for Mahomes against the Raiders secondary, Gus Bradley runs a cover 3 defence, they are the only team who haven’t tried the two high safeties against Kansas City in recent memory, and they got burned, giving up 41 points, we could see the fabled Mahomes of old here, but don’t read too much into it.
The Raiders are the worst team at defending tight ends, giving up close to 60 yards a game, and they give up the most tight end touchdowns, last time out Kielce had 8 catches for 119 yards and although he didn’t get in the endzone, back up TE Noah Gray did. In the two games before the blowout win against the Raiders Kielce had 8 total catches for 101 yards, and in the 2 after 9 total catches for 95 yards. I expect a big game out of Kelce, and Hill who had a big game last time out agains Vegas.
I just didn’t feel like I could lay 10 points on that KC offense, I think they win handily, but as the saying goes you dont make money laying doubles in the NFL.
The second part of this teaser isn’t a play on Mr Unlllllllllllllllllllllllllimted (very limited) its a play against Houston, they’ve dumped Tyrod this week, for David MIlls, who when hes played this year, has been terrible, and with the NFL being a what have you done for me lately league, if Pete Carroll wants to be part of Seattle next year, with or without Wilson, i”d suggest he needs a strong end to this season,
Houston also released Zack Cunningham this week, who was immediately picked up by the Titans, which seemingly has caused some discontent in the ranks, the Tyrod thing seems like the final white flag after years of white flags for the Texans, Taylor was playing hard, you saw how hard he was playing with his effort for two rushing touchdowns against Tennessee. MIlls has no weapons on offense, if you cant get right in this spot Seattle, maybe the mooted rebuild has to happen sooner rather than later.
PICK 2.
I’m genuinely going to copy and paste some of my handicap from last week, where if you tailed we had the Jags under team total again, all i will add to it this week is, if you can believe it there were very negative reports out of Jacksonville involving Urban Mayer, where he called his staff “losers” and had a blazing row with a receiver, who’s name escapes me right now, can’t be good for a team and coaches to hear that, add that into the mix with the James Robinson stuff as well as Jacksonville being a highly dysfunctional organisation to begin with, could you be bothered coaching hard out playing hard for a team that just vomits on their own feet week after week?
Trevor Lawrence has only thrown one TD pass since Hallowe’en! And Tennessee come into this off a bye.
We’ve already got skin in the Texans game, and to be honest I can’t believe that I’m going to have to pay attention to these crappy teams! But as I said earlier, David MIlls is going to have nobody to throw to, he has no weapons, no run game, no hope. Nobody wants to be in that building, Laremy Tunsil was talking up a return a month ago, but has a poorly finger so hasn’t bothered to come back, if that doesn’t tell you what you need to know about Houston I don’t know what will, NFL players are tough boys and a finger injury keeping somebody out, especially a lineman can’t have good connotations.
PICK 3.
What’s going on with Buffalo, they have not been good since they beat Kansas City, so what’s the truth? Are they the team that beat Mahomes, or are they the team that has beaten level below competition including the Jets and the Texans or are they a team that cant beat a good team?
In my mind they are a the proverbial flat track bullies, who beat shit teams, but can also play down to their competition (Jags 9 – Bills 6) and will struggle against a really good team with a solid game plan (Colts 41 – Bills 15). And this week after being beaten up badly in the cold and the rain wind and snow by the Patriots, who ran them to death, have to travel now to the warm sweaty state of Florida, without their best corner back, and a defense who will have been shattered after MNF being on the field for so long.
Buffalo have no run game what so ever outside of some QB runs for Josh Allen, coming up against a team that is best against the tun? Josh Allen with have to have the cannon warm because he’s going to have to come out throwing.
The Bucs are getting healthier on D, Sherman is back this week which will help, although I’m not exactly sure hoe much in truth. The Bucs will hope to win this game and keep up their hopes of the number one seed in the NFC. Give me Brady and his weapons and a healthier defence against what is essentially what Josh Allen can do with his arm and what he can do with his feet.
PICK 4.
What have we seen thus far this season when Dallas have been down late in games, they keep Dak and the offense on the field and keep going until the clock hits triple zeros. What do we see when Dallas gets up in games? They keep Dak and the offense on the field and they keep throwing until the clock hits triple zeros.
I think Dallas win the game, I think they cover, we’re buying so high on the Football Team that I just couldn’t look that way. Aside from Tony Pollard, we get a Cowboys team on longer rest, having played last Thursday night against the Saints, who are getting healthier, even if Zeke doesn’t look right, the receiving core is all going to be available, and Dalton Schultz has turned himself into a nice weapon too.
We could see Dak finally having to use his legs if Pollard can’t go, and Corey Clement is Zeke’s back up. And although Washington have seemingly turned a corner on D since their bye week, giving up an average of 18 PPG since then.
To my mind since week one, Dallas haven’t had their total crop of receivers available, and Dak will have to lean on them to get the job done here, and if they don’t win this one, WFT will have the division title back in their minds again.
Cowboys win, probably cover, but put up some nice points too.
PICK 5.
My fingers are still burnt from our prop bet on Mixon taking everything to the over house last week, when they were down bug and had to throw, we had over 19.5 carries, he sat on !9 carries for what felt like the entire second half, but that being said, I think they get a nice bounce back spot against the 49ers.
The San Francisco secondary is absolutely decimated with injury, it looks like Burrow and Mixon will both play. Deebo Samuel is trending to play and that will help, but if I’m given a choice of Burrow or Jimmy G, I’d take Burrow every day of the week, this should be a nice game in the late slate, I also would lean over too, can see this being a high scorning affair.
That said it’s my 5th pick, and I’m as ever less sold on this one as I am there others, its the 5th for a reason!
LEANS THAT DID NOT MAKE MY CARD
Lions Denver under 42, Packers -12.5 (don’t make money laying doubles in the NFL), Giants Chargers under 43, Chargers, 9ers Bengals over.
PROPS
There were a few props i liked this week to unofficially keep an eye out for. just using bet builder on Bet365.
Nick Chubb over 68.5 rushing yards and a TD 11/5
Zeke under 58.5 and Gibson over 68.5 5/2
Cam Newton over 33.5 rushing yards 5/6
Good luck if you follow, good luck if you don’t lets just hope we all win some money.
Cheers, The Fat Man.
Fat Lad Sports 