Last week was a slight upgrade for us on our NFL picks, 2-3, which is better than the 0-5 and 1-4 we had the two previous weeks, but 3 losing weeks in a row definitely isn’t the one, and to say I was annoyed at it would be an understatement, but not being the type to shy away and having made a commitment to picking 5 NFL bets a week during the regular season, we’ll try again, although we’re below 50% now on the year after the last 3 weeks, a winning season is well within our grasp and that magical 55% we strive for on all of our sports is still there to be had.
So without further ado lets get into the second slate of week 12, after the 3 Thanksgiving games. 5 lovely picks for you to tail or fade, whatever you want, it’ll not upset us if you want to fade us, you’d have been profitable doing so the last few weeks anyway!
PICK 1.
Minnesota Vikings +3.5 @ San Francisco 49ers.
Back to back weeks banking on old Kirky boy to do the business for us, after having The Vikings against the Packers last time out. I think this is a good spot for the Vikings, especially against a 9ers team who have won once at home since before the Golden Gate Bridge was built.
That victory coming against the Rams, where Kyle Shanahan seems to have the wood on Sean McVay. The 49ers also have very little home field advantage, which is becoming less and less year on year seemingly, and although we don’t get Cousins in his favourite spot at 1pm at home I think we’ve got the better QB, at least comparable offences and a Vikings D that’s improving and getting healthier, all that leads me to believe we’re on the right side of things in this one.
Minnesota seemingly always play close games, in their 10 games this season the average margin of victory for winning teams has been 4.8, and the last 3 games all falling 3 and only once has a game involving Minnesota been decided by more than a touchdown (week 4, 30-17 win against Seattle) this season. So I think catching over a field goal here really represents value.
I liked the value as well on the Vikings to win outright at 6/4, but as ever its a little more conservative and we will take the points. Dre Greenlaw was activated for Sunday which is bad news Minnesota, but Dee Ford wasn’t which is good. Elijah Mitchell is questionable and JaMycal Hasty is out, which in theory weakens San Fran at running back, but Deebo Samuel proved very capable last week at running the ball (8/79 with a TD) but only getting one catch for 15 yards.
PICK 2.
Green Bay Packers +4 hosting LA Rams.
I was hoping this line was going to hit 3 before I started to write this, but over night the line has gone down a full point from +2.5 to +1.5 and we’d get a full field goal of value on COVID toe and Devante Adams. So we are taking the one of numerous alternate spreads out there.
Two good defenses go head to head this week, Green Bay are one of my favourite teams to bet the under on with only 3 totals going over in games involving Green Bay this season.
Since Robert Woods has been out for LA they haven’t looked the same offensively, baring Cooper Kupp, who continues to defy logic and keeps hitting huge numbers week on week. I’m sure off their bye that OBJ will be a help to The Rams, but my question is how will the continuity be between Stafford and Beckham?
Both teams are giving up on average over 100 yards per game on the ground, so Darrel Henderson and AJ DIllon, and there’s a chance that Aaron Jones could return too for Green Bay, he’s officially questionable on the final injury report should have productive days. Rodgers hasn’t practiced all week with a broken toe, although will play, but I feel possibly we could see a bit more of Jordan Love this week on 3rd down, you know the ones where Rodgers scrambles on 3rd and 8 for a first down, every single fucking time.
PICK 3.
Chargers -2.5 @ Denver
I’m struggling to find a good reason why this line is what it is, it started the week at -2.5, got bet up to -3.5 and Denver money has the sitting back at where it started, and I’m not sure these are comparable teams, if this line is correct, and you’d have to say earlier on in the year Denver has a bigger home advantage than most, lets call it 2, and later on in the year it decreases somewhat, by a point possibly, are the Chargers really only a point and half better than Denver?
Yes Denver have a good core of receivers and their defense has been good but possibly down on expectation and losing a key piece in Von Miller but they do get Bradley Chubb back this week which is massive, Bobby Massie is doubtful to play and that means Cam Fleming should get the start. Which means that should help the 10th rated Chargers pass rush unit get to Teddy Bridgewater.
I think similarly to the Vikings pick we get the better side of it on the QB play, comparable receivers and tats what the boiled down to for me, i’d rather back Herbert than Bridgewater, even of Teddy Two Gloves has been a covering machine in his time as a starter.
PICK 4.
Eagles Moneyline and under 54.5 @ Giants
Philly have found their identity the last few weeks, run the ball and throw when necessary. Jalen Hurts could be the man in Philadelphia for years to come, he could be their answer to Lamar Jackson.
The Giants are without a plethora of offensive weapons yet again and will doubtless have to rely heavily on Saquon again to get the offense going. Sterling Shepard is officially out again, Kyle Rudolph doubtful, Kadarius Toney doubtful, John Ross questionable, so when Danny Dimes isn’t fumbling or throwing the ball to the Eeagles secondary, who is he going to target?
This game screams under too, with Philly running the ball, taking time off the clock, and throwing the Devonta Smith when needed. Although The Eagles will be without Jordan Howard but there are so many running options for them I don’t think it weakens them all that much, that and the Giants being depleted offensively. But I’ve bumped up the total on this game and I still get an even money payout which I love.
PICK 5.
Tampa Bay Moneyline @ Indy
Tommy B and a 60% ROI? Yes please. Vita Vea might be back this week for Tampa and that is huge if they are going to win this game. Teams already don’t want to run the ball on The Bucs, and if Vea does play that only strengthens our bet, how affective is Jonathan Taylor going to be against that Tampa front?
Short week for Tampa, but who better to be equipped for that than Brady? The GOAT will no doubt have his team on all cylinders as they chase the number one seed in the NFC. He’s still without Antonio Brown, but Gronk is invaluable in the redzone offense.
As I was saying earlier if Taylor is shut down for the Colts and the game rests in Carson There’s no hole I can’t get myself out of Wentz I’m not in the least bit optimistic about their chances, I love Tampa to win the game outright and lean to them covering the 3, i can easily see this line hitting 4 by kick off, so if there are any 3’s out there pick them up now!
PROPS
Ive found a few thing I like this week, a few team totals, some players props and TD scorers, I’ve not got the time to write a full report on each of them but they are listed here.
> Jags under 20
> Jonathan Taylor under 79.5
> Titans under 18.5
> Joe Burrow over 5.5 rush yards
> Tim Patrick anytime TD
> Hunter Henry anytime TD
Good luck to all of you this week with you bets, weather you take any of ours or not, lets hope we all win some money and stick it to the books who have taken enough of our money the last few weeks.
Cheers, The Fat Man
Fat Lad Sports 