Week 13 in the NFL is upon us, and its a decent slate this week to be fair. This week I’ve had to whittle down my picks, which is something I haven’t been able to do for a few weeks now. I made a commitment when I started this venture to give 5 picks a week on the NFL, and if you’re reading this you’ll be intelligent enough to know its hard to pick 5 spots a week you love.
I’ve been struggling to get to 5 games that I like for a little while now, finding a few that I’ve felt really good about and others that some weeks wouldn’t make my card, but 5 picks a week is what was promised and I’ll stick to that. I like to be as transparent as I can too with everything we do, so don’t think of this as a sympathy call, we don’t do that shit. It’s just me being as open as I can so nobody can say anything negative and we continue to keep our dignity as an organisation.
Our usually 5 will go in here like every other week, but I’ll also post the other games that didn’t make the card for transparency of which there are 4.
The next paragraph is for people who read this from Reddit. If you’ve already got us on the podcast or on social media then skip it and go straight to the picks.
If you do read this then have a look for us on social media, we do a football (soccer) podcast, again where me and partner in this little adventure pick 5 games a week too (3-2 this week)That podcast is called The Gambling Corner. We post sports blogs, generally a rant or a rave, the word cunt gets used quite a lot too, so if that’s your bag we’re Fat Lad Sports across the board, previews and our podcast links, and all the other stuff we do is all on our social links.
Anyway, enough jibber jabber, lets fucking have ourselves an NFL Sunday shall we!
PICK 1.
Those of you who read my piece earlier on in the week, or listened to the podcast know we have a bet we absolutely love on Joe Mixon, and a lot of that plays into my thinking here. If you didn’t and would like to you can get it right here.
https://wordpress.com/page/fatladsports.wordpress.com/764
Are the Chargers any good? That’s the number one question you have to ask yourself before betting on this game, because if you take 2 points for home advantage this line sitting at 3 means that Cincinnati are only a point better than LA on a neutral field. Yes we get a match up of two young sexy media favourite QB’s who everybody loves.
According to Accuweather there is a 97% chance of rain, and wind gusts of 46Km/h at game time tomorrow, so this could be a rush off between Mixon and Eckler, if Burrow and Herbert can’t throw the ball as well as they usually do. And if that’s the case, then I would rather lay my money on the team who has run the bollocks off of teams for the last few weeks, coming up against the 32nd rush D,
I also like the fact that Brandon Staley seemingly goes for it on every 4th down from their own 40 forwards. He’s incredibly aggressive on 4th downs and we only need a few of them to come up short and give Burrow, Mixon and Chase a short field to work with. I can see Staley and his ultra aggressive nature trying his best to keep Mixon on the sidelines and that could come back to bite him in the arse.
PICK 2.
The other team in LA make up one part of my two picks from the same game. I didn’t want to lay double digits on the Rams no matter the disparity between the two teams, but we do have motivated big favourite in The Rams (12.5) who find themselves in probably one of the best get right spots you could possibly ask for.
I like them to come out strong in the first half I’d lean to them in the first quarter too -0.5 even with OBJ being questionable and having been without Robert Woods for multiple weeks you have to think that they come out firing in this one to help them get back on track, with OBJ being questionable you have to think that Cupp will get even more targets than he usually does, his line is currently 7.5 and I’d also be looking to Higbee and Van Jefferson over their receptions too.
With the double digit spread here, The Rams will win this game, its just a question of by how many, are they motivated to keep throwing into the second half, late in the game and really tread all over Jacksonville. I think they are motivated to a point, and will especially be motivated early on, before the inevitable bleeding of the clock, although Darrell Henderson is questionable, could we see more of Sony Michel and look betting him over his yards. I also like the team total for LA in the first half at 15.5.
PICK 3.
Part two of my bets on this game is under Jacksonville’s team total, we’ve had some nice winners betting teams under their team total, especially Detroit.
The high point of The Jags scoring this season has been 23, in London, with two 50+ field goals getting the job done for Urban and Trevor. Jacksonville have hit the over on this total 5 times this season but not in their last 5 games, Lawrence will also never have been up against a D as good as this Rams one.
LA should be able to have their way with this Jags offense and keep them to a below modest total, I genuinely think this is a horrible, horrible match up for Jacksonville. That Rams star studded D against a great coach with a rookie QB and a terrible coach,
PICK 4.
Daniel Jones stinks, we all know that, but Mike “The Neck” Glennon is worse ( I don’t know if that’s his actual nickname but it should be” this line was 3 in favour of Miami early in the week, but has trickled up to 6.5 through the week with the news that Danny Fumbles was doubtful but then being ruled officially out on Friday.
Miami have quietly been going about their business winning 4 straight games, they get back their centre Michael Deiter and star wide out Devante Parker this week, while the Giants are still decimated at their skill positions,
Yes we are buying high on the Dolphins now that line is nearly a touchdown and my best guess is that it’ll hit 7 before kick off, I can’t see the public bettors spending their hard earned money on New York on game day.
We also get a much better coaching edge, the Giants fired their OC The Clapper mid season which you’d think oh they’ll have somebody in mind to make them more dynamic, no no, Freddie fucking Kitchens is the offensive play caller now, and we all know how well he did in Cleveland.
To summarise, banged up New York O, with a back up QB, and useless OC against a team on a 4 game win streak who have done very well recently, with a competent coach complimented with a good defense, gimme The Dolphins.
PICK 5.
Not too much to say about this one really, both teams I expect to win their respective games, what I will say is that I lean to Indy -9.5 against Houston, their D should be able to limit and Already limited Texans offense, then when they are up 10 in the 4th quarter Jonathan Taylor can ram this one home and keep that back door closed.
With that being said the Colts need this game, with their crushing loss to Tampa last week, and the Titans starting to slip up and their division lead being narrowed. The Cardinals should also get back Kyler and D-Hop this week too, though officially they are both game time decisions again it seems like they are trending in the right direction to play.
Since Kyler has been out I’ve been on the wrong side of them every fucking week, so if they fuck us over here they may make the cunt list once and for all and there’s no way off those lists when they’ve hurt your bank balance one too many times!
LEANS
So the 4 teams that did not make it into the top 5 this week , Philly ( -6.5 ) but based on the news Hurts is out I couldn’t touch it. Atlanta ( +11 ) this could be a closer game than many think, Bucs will win but i think but I can’t lay double digits. 49ERS ( -3 ) Mr Uuuuuuuuuuuunlimted looks pretty fucking limited doesn’t he, and off the back of a dream crusher last week, San Fran were close to going in. Kansas City ML and over 40.5, just not sure if Denver can put up points against this KC D, don’t really have a feel for this game, tried to manipulate the lines but even then I wasn’t convinced.
Good luck if you tail, good luck if you fade, lets hope we can all take some money off the bookies this week!
Cheers, The Fat Man.
Fat Lad Sports 