Happy Christmas everybody, I cant lie to you, as I’m writing this my eyes are being held open by matchsticks. The early morning Christmas Day with children preceding a very late night watching the two NFL games while listening to the Cricket from Australia followed by today having a full slate of games in the NFL means I will probably yawning for a few days until i eventually catch up on the sleep I’ve missed. But there could be few worse reasons to be tired than having wall to wall sport over the festive break.
I started the week with 11 bets to whittle down from, absolutely loads of teaser legs available, I’ve talked myself out of 3 winning picks in the last week or so too, despite all the work that had gone into making those picks, so maybe I just trust my instinct and the fucking numbers from now on hey!
Right, much as I’d like to continue this intro, if I carry on for much longer I’ll be asleep at the keyboard, so fuck it lets get into it and have ourselves a day.
PICK 1.
I don’t know whether its the orange uniforms or if its Joe Burrows hair or what, but the bengals are my darlings, and I don’t know why, I’m not sure what it is, I seem to have a play on them each and every week! I wasn’t keen on them at -1 earlier in the week, but when the news Lamar wasn’t going to play became obvious and the line went to 3 with it looking like Huntley was going to play for a second straight week, so like a sucker I took the 3, but now its 7, with Josh Johnson who’s been on the team since the 16th of this month.
The defense for Baltimore is all kinds of banged up, but that’s well known to everybody, we’ve seen a lot of 3rd string QBs the last few weeks, can Josh Johnson even be considered a 3rd stringer given he has been on the team 10 days? We’ve also got to take into consideration that he’s the only QB that’s made the trip for this game, so its down to him and the emergency QB, who I can’t for the life of me think of his name.
All of that must mean that Baltimore is going to ultra conservative in their game plan, plenty of quick passing and runs to minimise the chance of injury would be my guess. With Cincinnati being 4th on the list in terms of run defense YPG you’d have to imagine that scoring will be an issue for Baltimore, although the Bengals are going up against the number one team on that list.
PICK 2.
We know what happened the last time the Bills played New England, and I feel like something similar will happen this time out too, low scoring, a real grind of a game, but maybe slightly less so with the weather being a little better than it was in Buffalo a few weeks ago.
There was a little more life in the two weeks after the first meeting for the Bills running attack, Allen went over 100 yards against Tampa on the ground. But finally Devin Singletary has shown us a little something with with 26 attempts for 138 yards and a TD, including 86 yards against a good Carolina D. If he can even even be a compliment to Allen on the ground then Buffalo are obviously a stronger suit than if his truth is what he’s shown the other 12 games of the season.
If this game is as tight as I expect it to be that points to Buffalo hanging about and being within touching distance, so for us to get over a TD is something I’m a fan of, this game will go a long way to settling the division, so as I say I’m thinking this will be a tightly played game. I think New England will win but part on of a teaser, Josh Allen and the boys +8.5
We are paring Buffalo with Philly, and Mike “The Neck” Glennon, is under centre for the Giants for the remainder of the season, and they are shite, is the word out about Saquon? He doesn’t look nearly as dynamic as he has done in the past years, bar that one handed grab against Dallas last week, fucking flash by the way, but aside from that one flashy play I think he’s being out played by Devin Booker. Philly are currently the 8th seed so need to win the game to keep up chances of a play off spot with Dallas having clinched last week the division has all but gone, so with important playoff connotations and the fact there are very few instances where I’ll lay double digits in the NFL means that Philly was a pretty easy choice to pair Buffalo with.
PICK 3.
First of two team totals this week, we’ve got the Kansas City team total first, this is more a play on the Pittsburgh D keeping them in games, which they have to do because they’ve got Mr Blobby at QB, both defences could be the features of this one.
The one question I’ve asked myself over and over is what is the truth of the Chiefs? Is it their D is better than anybody anticipated or that their O has finally been caught out and teams have been able to work them out? I think it’s more that their D is that good. And if they can get it clicking on offense they real are a force. Tyreek has been elevated off the COIVD List which is good for them but possibly bad for us, but Kelce is part of the active roster, but needs to clear protocols on Sunday to play, and if he cant then I feel his absence could be a real help to us.
The Steelers on D have really carried this team, their secondary is unbelievable and has been getting healthier, look out for TJ Watt looking like he’s done for the day then coming in and making a few big plays to help keep them in the game! Once again not a spot where I want to lay any sides. But I do feel like the Steelers D can keep the KC O in check .
PICK 4.
LA come into this without Eckler and Mike Williams, which I feel would be an issue should they be playing anybody else. But they still have plenty of weapons available to Justin Herbert, Jared Cook, Guyton, Keenan Allen and Palmer and with Jackson and Kelley splitting the carries without Eckler you’d have to imagine that’ll be enough to get the job done, on the flip the Houston will be without Bradin Cooks who has been a beacon of light through a crap shoot season, with a team who’s leading rusher for the season is still Mark Ingram who hasn’t played for Houston since week 7.
Tommy Terrific in part 2 of this bet, Brady is 70% ATS off as loss in his career (44 winners and 19 losers) and although he’ll be hindered without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans they should still have enough to win this game, plenty of Gronk Brate and Howard I would suggest, against a Carolina team that without CMC has little or no identity, they will try and run the ball, but you can’t run on Tampa, this one probably goes under too I think, even with the total being 43.5
PICK 5.
A favourite bet of mine through out the year, it seems the Jags can’t score more than 17 points unless they play in London. While we’re at it when does the jury start to go out on Trevor Lawrence? I’m yet to see him be criticised buy by the masses. I know what you’re going to say that how could anybody succeed in that organisation, and I get that but he’s supposed to be gods gift to quarterbacking, so under 20.5 we go.
Not got a lot else to say this week, apart from I started writing this then I had to step away for Boxing Day lunch, which is infinitely better than Christmas Diner in my humble opinion, argue amongst yourselves about that one!
Cheers, The Fat Man
Fat Lad Sports 